AdSense vs Google Ad Exchange

5 reasons to get started with Google Ad Exchange (ADX) / Ezoic

Ezoic is a Google Certified Publishing Partner.  As part of this exclusive program, our system gives you access to Google’s Ad Exchange which, combined with Ezoic’s ad tester and other products, help thousands of publishers take advantage of improved ad income and better usability.  So why try Ezoic / ADX?  What makes it better than AdSense, or using other ad networks?

Here are 5 reasons why you should get started using Ezoic/ADX:

1. No Cost & Easy to sign up.

If you have an AdSense account – it’s easy to apply to ADX via Ezoic.  Once approved by Google – you can immediately start testing with Google Ad Exchange ads!  You can create an Ezoic account for free here.

By signing up to use Google Ad Exchange using Ezoic, you are not committing to anything permanent.  There is no revenue share (Ezoic does not take a revenue share for this access to ADX).  You can stop using Ezoic / ADX at any time and there are no contracts.  Ezoic makes it easy to get started, but also easy to quit too.  We’re so confident that you’ll get value out of this system, we give a 30 day free trial and there after, we charge by showing an Ezoic ad (which the system keeps the money from).  This is in effect a dilutive charge, but because most publishers are making far more using Ezoic vs AdSense, they see the system as essentially paying for itself.

2. Five ads per page (ADX) vs Three ads per page (AdSense). 

Google AdSense program policy restricts  publishers to 3 display ads per page.  If you’re using Ezoic ad tester, you can show up to 5 Google display ads per page.

3. Ad Exchange gives you access to thousands of CPM ad networks (including AdSense!). 

Firstly – it’s important to understand what Google’s ad exchange is.  ADX is Google’s real time bidding environment for your ad inventory.  Each ad is sold in a lightening-fast auction, so you get the best price for every ad you sell via the exchange.  Putting your ads up for auction is a far more efficient method of monetizing ad inventory than the old way of giving all your ads to just one ad network (who would most likely just auction off what they cannot sell themselves anyway).  AdSense is undoubtedly the biggest ad network in the world.  So having AdSense ads compete for each ad impression (against other advertisers), is better than running AdSense on it’s own.  Creating a bidding war for high value users means you get the right price for your ads and don’t miss out.

4. Ezoic’s machine learning system handles ADX optimization for you.  

It’s not enough to just ‘get an account’ and plug ADX into your site.  ADX is a dynamic environment and needs to be managed and optimized continually.  Our proprietary machine learning optimization system with works in unison with ADX and other ad exchanges for display, in-line and native ad types.  Ezoic uses complex pattern recognition algorithms and computational learning to take ADX to the next level.  

Ezoic is all about technology.  We don’t do things manually.  We like to figure out what works and then apply to to all the sites that use our system.  It’s compounding the benefits for everyone.  So we have built systems and methodologies that give you the very best that real time bidding has to offer.  Our system optimizes the auction of each ad on each page – by device – so you don’t have to.  You get all the benefits of Google’s Ad Exchange (ADX), without the effort.

5. Ad Testing –  New ad combinations can increase ad income by 300%!

Having better priced (eCPM) ads from ad exchanges like ADX is only half the story.  You need to continually test combinations of ads on the page and their effect on user experience.  Testing by device size and by ‘session income’ (epmv) to see what works best is best.

Ezoic’s ad tester product does this all for you.  Set up correctly, it will test myriad ‘potential’ ad positions (20-40 on a page, but only ever showing 5 display ads per page maximum) and finding better and better ad combinations for desktop, mobile and tablet.  It’s all about the math – just give the system plenty of ad placements and the opportunities for multiple big wins goes up!  Using Ezoic Ad Tester in combination with ADX will give you the results you’ve been looking for with very little effort.

Why test ad positions?   We could write a whole article just on this point, but it’s all about revenue per visitor.  Many publishers fail to understand that all ads dilute one another.  If you overload a site with too many ads, or with miss the fact that one ad is killing the income of another (higher achieving) ad, you will fail to achieve maximum income from the visitors who come to the site.  Ezoic ad testing technology works out which ads should go where and in what combination.

By combining super-optimized ad exchange ads with and better and better ad combinations per visitor session – Ezoic unlocks the revenue potential of any AdSense site

 

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Who’s buying your ads? (A list of Ad Networks who bid in Google’s Ad Exchange – ADX)

Who’s bidding in Google’s Ad Exchange (ADX)?

Did you know that thousands of ad networks bid for ad inventory in Google’s Ad Exchange every day?

We get asked this a lot.  Who is bidding in Google’s Ad Exchange?  Is it all just advertisers? Do ad networks get their ad inventory in Ad Exchanges?  How about other ad exchanges like Open X?  Do ad networks buy ads there too?  In short, people want to know who’s buying their ads…

Who’s buying your ads?

The easiest way to tell you who’s buying your ad inventory is to show you.  So, here is a partial list (below) of the ad networks currently bidding for Ezoic Publisher Partner ad inventory via ADX and other ad exchanges.  As you can see – this is a healthy ecosystem!  And it’s an ecosystem that includes ad agencies, ad networks, advertisers, bidding tools, direct advertisers…. and changing all the time and requires constant attention (this is just a snapshot – this list will already be out of  date by the time you read this, but it at least gives you an idea of who’s in the market!).

Why do Ad Networks buy ad inventory?

That’s easy – it’s so they can sell it along to advertisers at a profit.   Back in the old days (10 years ago), Ad Networks used to ‘represent’ their publisher’s inventory to ad agencies and sell campaigns (I should know! I used to run an ad network in a previous life :-).  But these days, ad networks are selling a few ads and then passing along the ads to ad exchanges.  They cherry pick the best ads for their direct deals, and supplement the ad inventory of their contracted publishers with ads from good quality sources that they buy from ad exchanges.  Why do they do that?  Because it’s an easy way of making a profit and if they are under achieving on an ad campaign they have sold to an advertiser, they can easily fulfill it by topping up on good quality ads by buying more ads from ADX.  Makes sense?  But they are taking a cut of everything they handle… so in effect, ad networks have become brokers of ad inventory.   Nothing more than another unnecessary link in the value chain…

If you have good quality users – you should get the best price the market can give you – with as few intermediaries as possible.  Ad networks want to sell more ads and if you have what they are looking for at the right price, they will pay for it.  That’s because what advertisers really want is quality.   Quality ad inventory is having ‘good users’ who are engaged with the content.  Your site’s ads are of interest to ad networks and other bidders because your users are actually engaged with the content and when they click on ads – they are ‘good’ for the advertiser.

How Ezoic ‘curates’ your ad inventory

Ezoic is a Certified Publishing Partner with Google.  That means that our system connects your ad inventory with Google and handles multiple layers of ad management for those publishers that use our system.   This is about as close as you can get to the real value that can be achieved by an ad exchange (without actually being Google!).   Having 3 more intermediaries in the mix – reselling your inventory and taking a cut used to mean you’d get poor quality ads and a poor payout!  This is no longer the case thanks to the emergence of the ad exchange over the ad network.

Ezoic works out the price it should charge for every ad – at all times of the day.  This is because the greater the bid pressure it can achieve and the more bidders there are for Publisher inventory – the better the price!  It’s a finely tuned balancing act and luckily for our publishers – it’s all automated by Ezoic’s proprietary machine learning technology.  Let the ad networks compete!

Take a look at the list below and imagine trying to do a manual ‘ad tag waterfall’ for all these ad networks.  Or, even worse, attempting to do ‘deals’ with all of them one by one and work out a rev’ share with each one!

The List

This is why Ezoic takes advantage of every innovation and complication in the ever changing market.  We are huge fans of real time bidding and programmatic buying and selling.  It amazes me that some publishers are Ad Network Loyalists…  There is no need any more for sales people to be selling your ads to ad agencies by fax.

Why have one ad network, when you can have them all? (sign up to Ezoic/ADX!)

Here are some of the Ad Networks who bid for inventory via the Ad Exchanges we use for our partners (including ADX).  AdSense isn’t on the list, but they account for more than 60% of all bids in Google’s ad exchange.

1020 Inc, dba Placecast
PlacecastSSL
12Mnkys GmbH
2KDirect Inc.
iPromote
33Across Inc.
Tynt
33Across Inc.SSL
3xchange/Hunkal
4WMarketPlace Srl
A1platform
A6 CorporationSSL
A9.comSSL
ADCASHSSL
ADJUSTSSL
ADSOVO SAS
ADTARGET.ME UAB
Adtarget.meSSL
AMoAd, Inc.
AOL Inc.
ADTECH GmbHSSL
AOL Advertising.comSSL
Adap.tv Inc. (AdWords/YouTube)SSL
Adap.tv Inc. (AdX)SSL
Adtech
Adtech US Inc.SSL
Convertro IncSSL
APNIC Pty Ltd
ARC Media GroupSSL
ARTH SALUTIONS
Aarki, Inc.SSL
Abudantia LLC
Accordant Media LLC
Action Exchange, Inc.
Active Agent AG
Active AgentSSL
Acuity Ads Inc.SSL
AdBroker GmbH
AdElement Media Solutions Pvt. Ltd.
AdElement Media Solutions Pvt LtdSSL
AdExtentSSL
AdGear Technologies Inc.SSL
AdGibbon BVSSL
AdHui.com LLCSSL
AdJuggler Inc.SSL
AdKeeper Inc.
AdLantic Online Advertising BVSSL
AdMasterSSL
AdMaxim LLC
AdMovate, Inc.SSL
AdNear Pte. Ltd.
AdNear Pte Ltd.
AdPilot sp z o.o. S.K.A
AdPilotSSL
AdRepublic B.V.
MM1X.nlSSL
AdRiver Limited Liability Company
AdRiverSSL
AdRoll, Inc.SSL
AdSage
AdSniper LLC
AdSpeed.comSSL
AdSpirit GmbHSSL
AdTheorent, Inc.
AdVentori SASSSL
AdYapper, Inc.SSL
Adacado, Inc.SSL
Adara, Inc.
Adara MediaSSL
Opinmind Inc
Adbalancer EDV-DienstleistungsgesellschaftgmbH
Adbrain
Adchakra
PK Online Ventures Limited
AddThis, IncSSL
Addictive Mobility
Addictive Tech Corp.SSL
Addroid Inc.SSL
Adelphic Inc.
Adfonic
Adform
Adform DSP
Adform DSPSSL
AdformSSL
AdfoxSSL
Adinfinity Pty Ltd.
ViziAds for Advertisers
Adition technologies AG
AditionSSL
AdlabsSSL
Adledge SASSSL
AdlooxSSL
Admedo Ltd – United Kingdom
AdizioSSL
Admotion USA Inc.
AdMotionSSL
Admotion USA Inc.SSL
Adnet Media
Adnetik Inc.
DigilantSSL
Adnologies GmbHSSL
Adobe Systems Inc.
AdLensSSL
Adperium
Adperium BVSSL
Adscale GmbH
Adsfactor LimitedSSL
Adsit Media Advertising Ltd. Co.,
AdMan
Adsit Media Advertising Ltd. Co., (AdMan)
DigiEQ
Adtelligence GmbH
Advanse Ads
Advanse LLC
Adventive, Inc.SSL
Adverline SASSL
Advertising Technologies LTDSSL
Advertising.com Dynamic RetargeterSSL
Advertstream
AdAccess
Adviator
Adviator DSP
AdxcelSSL
Adyard GmbH
Adzerk Inc.SSL
AffectvSSL
Affiliate WindowSSL
Affilinet GmbH
AirfranceSSL
Airpush, Inc.
Aitarget LLCSSL
Ajillion Max LtdSSL
Alenty S.A.SSSL
AlgorithMedia S.r.l.
righTargetSSL
AlkemicsSSL
Alliance Health Networks, LLC
Alliance Internet
Alliance Internet (ntree)SSL
Amobee d/b/a Gradient X, Inc.
Adconion Media GroupSSL
Amobee Inc. d/b/a Gradient X
Amobee Inc. d/b/a Gradient XSSL
Answer Media, LLCSSL
AppLovin CorporationSSL
AppNexus Inc
AppNexus IncSSL
Appier Inc.SSL
Appreciate Ltd.
Apsalar, Inc.
Ara Labs Security Solutions Inc.SSL
Aranet Inc.
Adfusion
Arbigo Inc.SSL
AreaOne
Arrivalist.comSSL
Asda (CDN)
Asda
Audience Trading Platform LTD
AudienceFUEL, Inc.
AudienceScienceSSL
Audiencevalue Pte Ltd
Aunica
Authenticated Digital IncSSL
Auto360 Pty Ltd
FinanceGenerator
Automobile Ltd.
Avail IntelligenceSSL
Avazu Inc.SSL
Avocet Systems Limited
AvocetSSL
BEIJING BEHE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Co., Ltd
BEIJING DUOMENG ZHISHENG NETWORK TECHNOLOGY CO.LTD
BEIJING OASIS TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD. (Mjoys)
Beijing Oasis Technology Co. Ltd (Mjoys)
Baidu.com Times Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd
Banner Play LTD
Barons Media LLC
Batch Media GmbHSSL
BeWebMedia
Beijing Emar Online
Beijing Emar Online Technology Co.,Ltd
Beijing LangTaoJin Interactive Co., Ltd
Beijing NetEase YouDao Computer System Co., Ltd.
Beijing PageChoice Network Technology co., Ltd.
Beijing PinYou Interactive Information Technology
Beijing WuShuang Technology Ltd.
Beijing WuShuang Technology Ltd. (AGrant)SSL
Belboon GmbHSSL
Betgenius Limited (Connextra)
Betgenius LimitedSSL
Between Digital
Between Digital dba Intency DSPSSL
Bidlab Sp. z o.o.SSL
Bidstalk Pte Ltd
Bidstalk Pte LtdSSL
Bidtheatre ABSSL
Big Mobile Group Pty LtdSSL
Bigpoint GmbHSSL
Bilendi SASSL
BlisMedia Limited
Brand.net
Brandscreen Inc.SSL
Bridgewell IncorporatedSSL
Broadband Enterprises
VindicoSSL
Burst Media LLC d/b/a AdConductor
BuySellAds.com Inc.SSL
BuzzCity Pte Ltd
BysideSSL
C2B S.A. – NetAffiliation
NetAffiliationSSL
C3 Metrics Inc.SSL
CAPITALDATA (SARL)SSL
CJSC “Modern Advertising Technology”
EXEBID
EXEBIDSSL
COADVERTiSE GmbHSSL
Canned Banners LLCSSL
Caraytech S.A. (e-Planning)
e-PlanningSSL
Celtra Inc.SSL
Centro Canada Acquisition Company dba SiteScout
SiteScout RTBSSL
Chango Inc.SSL
Channel Factory, LLCSSL
ChannelAdvisor UK Ltd.
ChannelAdvisorSSL
Chartbeat IncSSL
Chitika Inc.SSL
Choicestream Inc.
ClickDistrict Holding BV
Platform 161SSL
Clickagy, LLCSSL
Clickky LLP DBA Clickky
Clinch.co
Cobalt GroupSSL
Codigo Barras Networks, SL – Other – (Shopall)
Shopall
Cognitive Match LimitedSSL
Cogo Labs, Inc.SSL
Collective Media LLC
Oggifinogi
Tumri
Communication Services Tele2 GmbH
Compete, Inc
Ad Impact:Behavior (Compete No-Pixel Study)
Ad Impact:Survey (Compete No-Pixel Study)
Ad VRF (Compete Pixel Study)
Comune SASSL
Connexity LLCSSL
Constant ContactSSL
Conversant
CJ Affiliate by ConversantSSL
Conversant Ad ServerSSL
Conversant CRMSSL
Conversant MediaSSL
Conversant Mobile MediaSSL
Conversive BVSSL
ConvertMedia Ltd.SSL
ConvertStar Incorporated (dba: Go2mobi)
ConvertStar IncorporatedSSL
Core Audience, Inc
Crimson Tangerine LTD.
CrimtanSSL
Crisp Media Inc.
CriteoSSL
CrossInstall, Inc
CrowdMob Inc.
CyberAgent, Inc.
CyberAgent d/b/a Dynalyst
CyberAgent d/b/a GameLogicSSL
D.A. Consortium Inc.
D.A. Consortium Inc. (EffectiveOne)SSL
D.A.Consortium Beijing
D.A.Consortium Beijing (Platform One China)
D.G.T.L. Media Pvt. Ltd.
AdMagnetSSL
DC Storm Ltd.SSL
DOUBLE 6
Double6SSL
DYNADMIC SASSSL
Data Artist., Inc
Data Artist Inc.,SSL
DataLabSSL
DataPoint Media Inc.
DataXu Inc.
JasperLabs Inc.SSL
DataXu Inc.SSL
Datalicious Pty LtdSSL
Datamind Effective MediaSSL
Dedicated MediaSSL
Dell Inc.
Delta Projects AB
AdActionSSL
Demand Side Science, Inc.SSL
Demandbase Inc.SSL
Dennoo Inc.SSL
Devego S.A.
Jampp/Devego S.A.
Digital Control GmbH & Co. KG
Digital Control GmbH (Advolution)SSL
Domain Holdings Group, Inc. DBA Bidtellect
Domino’s Pizza Group – United Kingdom (Dominos)
Dominos UK (Mediaplex Infrastructure)SSL
Double Positive Marketing Group Inc.
DoubleVerify Inc.SSL
DstillerySSL
Dun and Bradstreet CorporationSSL
Dynamic Video LLCSSL
Dynamic Yield
E-Plus Mobilfunk GmbH & Co. KGSSL
EASYmedia Gmbh
RTBlabSSL
ESV Digital
Ebuzzing Luxembourg SA
Ebuzzing
Education Management CorporationSSL
Effective MeasureSSL
EffiliationSSL
Emediate ApS
EmediateAdSSL
Emego GmbH
UsemaxSSL
Emerse Sverige AB
Encore Media Metrics LLC
Encore Attribution PlatformSSL
EngageClick Inc
EnsightenSSL
Epayments Affiliates Limited
Ambercrow (Epayments)
Epigrams, Inc.
Eprofessional GmbHSSL
Essence Digital
ScrutineerSSL
Eulerian Technologies SARLSSL
EuroAds Group A/SSSL
Exactag GmbHSSL
Expert Advertising Solutions, LLC DBA AdShuffle
AdShuffleSSL
Explido Webmarketing GmbH
Action Allocator
AdTraxx
Exposebox LtdSSL
ExtendTV, Inc.
ExtendTV Inc.SSL
ExtendTV, Inc.SSL
Extreme Reach, Inc.
Extreme Reach Digital (ER Digital)SSL
Extreme Reach, Inc.SSL
EyeReturn Marketing
eyeDemandSSL
EyeReturn MarketingSSL
EyeView Inc.
EyeView Inc.SSL
EyeView, IncSSL
Ezakus
F@N Communications, Inc.SSL
Facebook, Inc.
Atlas Media ConsoleSSL
Atlas Rich MediaSSL
Liverail Inc.SSL
Facilitate Digital Pty Ltd
Facilitate For Agencies (FFA)SSL
Fattext LLC (DBA Moolah Media)
Federated Sample
Fiksu, Inc.
Fjord Technologies S.A.S. (Tag Commander)
Fjord Technologies S.A.S.SSL
Flaminem Inc
FlashtalkingSSL
Flite Inc.SSL
FlxOne BVSSL
Forbes Media LLC
Forensiq, LLC
Fractional Media, LLC
FreakOut Inc.SSL
FreeBit Co.,Ltd.
FreeBit Co. Ltd.SSL
FreeWheelSSL
Fringe81 Inc.SSL
Fuel451, Inc.
Fuel451, Inc.SSL
FullSpeed Inc.SSL
Fusebox Inc.
Fvrier 46 SAS (Kpsule)
KpsuleSSL
GET IT Mobile, IncSSL
GeeeN, Inc.SSL
Gemius
AdOcean LtdSSL
gemiusDirectEffect+SSL
gemiusTrafficSSL
Genie Group Limited
AdGenie
GetIntentSSL
GfK Custom Research
DimestoreSSL
GfK nurago GmbHSSL
Ghostery EnterpriseSSL
Global Market Insite Inc.SSL
Glossom????
GREE Ads DSPSSL
Go.Pl
GoldSpot Media IncSSL
Goodway GroupSSL
Google, Inc.
Adometry by GoogleSSL
Channel IntelligenceSSL
DoubleClick Bid ManagerSSL
DoubleClick Bidder Pilot for NetworksSSL
DoubleClick Campaign ManagerSSL
DoubleClick Rich MediaSSL
DoubleClick for Publishers PremiumSSL
Youtube, LLCSSL
Gravity Research and Development Zrt.
Gravity Research and Development LTDSSL
Gravity4 Inc.SSL
Gruvi Ltd.SSL
Guangzhou Shunfei Infomation Technology Corporatio
HAVAS MEDIA
CentraltagSSL
HQ GmbH
HangZhou Qiguan Network Technology Co., Ltd.
Hi Media SAS – France
Hi-MediaSSL
Hitokuse Inc.SSL
Hostway Corporation (dba Affinity)
Affinity Hostway Corporation
Hottraffic BV
DMA Institute dba HottrafficSSL
Hotwords Informao LTDASSL
Hubrus LLCSSL
Hurra Communications GmbH
Performance Display AdvertisingSSL
HyperAdvertising Ltd
IBM Digital AnalyticsSSL
IF Performance Marketing Ltd.SSL
IPONWEB LimitedSSL
IZP (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd.
??DSP(IZP Technologies)
Ibibo Group Private LimitedSSL
IgnitionOne T/A AdJug Ltd.
AdJugSSL
IgnitionOne, Inc.
Netmining LLCSSL
Immedium, Inc.SSL
Impact Engine Inc.
Impact RadiusSSL
InMind Opinion Media LTD
InMind Opinion MediaSSL
InRadio dba AdPredictive
AdPredictive
Indie Global LLC
Indie AdsSSL
Infectious Media Ltd.SSL
Infolinks
Innity Singapore Pte Ltd.SSL
Innovid Inc.
Innovid Inc.SSL
InsightExpress
Ignite NetworksSSL
InsightExpress LLCSSL
InsightExpressSSL
Integral Ad Science, Inc
Campaign MonitorSSL
Causal ImpactSSL
Intent MediaSSL
Intercept Interactive Inc. dba Undertone
Legolas Media Inc.SSL
Undertone Ad System (UAS)
Undertone Ad System (UAS)SSL
Intergi LLC dba PlaywireMedia
Internet-Media LLC
KonvertaSSL
Interpols Network Incorporated DBA Interpolls
InterpollsSSL
Interrogare GmbHSSL
Interworks media, Inc.
Intomart GfK bv.
Intomart GfK (GfK Daphne)SSL
Intuitive Search Technologies
Intelligent Reach (Intuitive Search Technologies)SSL
J.D. Power
J.D. Power O2OSSL
Jivox Corporation
Jivox CorporationSSL
Joystick InteractiveSSL
KAIZEN platform Inc.SSL
KEYVERSION, INC.
KeyVersion
KPI Solutions Co.,Ltd.SSL
Kantar SAS
Kantar World PanelSSL
Kavanga LLCSSL
Keyade
Kimia Solutions SL
King.com Limited
KliKKicom OySSL
Knorex Pte. Ltd.SSL
Komli Media Inc
Komli Media Inc.SSL
Koninklijke Luchtvaart Maatschappij N.V.
Kontera
KuaiziTechSSL
Kwanzoo Inc.SSL
Kyocera Communication Systems Co. Ltd.
Kyocera Communication Systems Co. Ltd.SSL
LINK Marketing Services AGSSL
LLC “Life Style”
LLC “Life Style”SSL
LLC SB-Dealer
Adlook
LOCKON CO.,LTD.
LockonSSL
LOKA Research inc.
LSi – Lionsoft Studios, spol. s r.o.SSL
LTD “Mobile Innovations”
PaypersaleSSL
LTD “RTB-MEDIA”SSL
Leger MarketingSSL
LifeStreet Corporation
LifeStreet CorportationSSL
Liftoff Mobile, Inc.
Lincoln Technical Institute, Inc.SSL
LinkedIn CorporationSSL
Linkstorm
Content Directions, Inc. dba Linkstorm
LiquidM Technology GmbH
Liquidus Marketing, Inc.
BannerlinkSSL
Lively Impact Technology Limited
FingereachSSL
Locon Solutions Pvt. Ltd.
Logly, Ltd.
Logly DSPSSL
LoopMe Ltd
LucidMedia Networks Inc
LucidMedia Networks Inc.
M,P,NEWMEDIA, GmbHSSL
MASSMOTIONMEDIA SARLSSL
MAXCOM TRADE LIMITED, INC
Admixer
AdmixerSSL
MBR Targeting GmbhSSL
MBuy, Inc.SSL
MEC SP. Z O.O
MGID Inc.SSL
MLN Advertising, Inc.
MediaGluSSL
MSI-ACI Europe BVSSL
Macromill, Inc.SSL
Madeleine Mode GmbH
Madhouse Co. Limited
Madhouse Co. Limited (OptiMad)
Magnetic Media Online Inc.SSL
Mail.Ru
Mail.Ru GroupSSL
Mail.RuSSL
Makazi SASSL
Manage.com Group, Inc.
Markit On Demand
Markit On Demand (Adhesion)SSL
Mashero GmbHSSL
Mate1.com Inc.
MaxPoint Interactive Inc.SSL
McCann Disciplines Ltd
MdotM, Inc.
MdotM, Inc.SSL
Media Armor Inc.SSL
Media Decision GmbHSSL
MediaCrossing Inc.
MediaMath Inc.
Adroit Digital Solutions (ADS)SSL
Adroit InteractiveSSL
MediaMath Inc.SSL
Mediahead AGSSL
Medialets
Medialets ServoSSL
MediarithmicsSSL
Mediasmart Mobile S.L.
Meetic PartnersSSL
Meetrics GmbHSSL
Melt Tecnologia e Informatica S.ASSL
Menlo Network Technologies
Menlo AnalyticsSSL
Shanghai Menlo Network Technologies Co.,LtdSSL
Merchenta LimitedSSL
Metapeople GmbHSSL
Metrigo GmbHSSL
MetrixLab B.V.SSL
MezzoMedia Inc.SSL
MiMTiD CorpSSL
Miaozhen Systems Company
Miaozhen SystemsSSL
MicroAd Co. Inc.
MicroAd Inc.
MicroAd Inc. (APAC)
MicroAd Inc. (China)
Microsoft AdvertisingSSL
Millennial Media
Millennial Media Inc
Millward Brown Digital
Dynamic Logic (AdRadar)SSL
SafeCount.net (kTag)SSL
MindTake Research GmbHSSL
Mirapodo GmbHSSL
Mixmarket – Russian Federation
Mixmarket Affiliate Network
Mixpo Inc.SSL
Moat Inc.SSL
Mobile Professionals BV
Mobile Professinals BV
Mobile Space Ltd (dba Sponsormob)
Mobile Space Ltd
Mobile360 Sdn Bhd
Mobitrans FZ LLC
Mobusi Mobile Advertising
Mocean mobile, Inc.
Mocoplex Inc.
Mojiva
Moloco, Inc.SSL
Momentum K.K.SSL
Motrixi Media Group LLC
MyBuys, Inc.
MyBuys MyAdsSSL
MyThings UK LtdSSL
NCAA.com
Turner Sports Interactive, Inc.
NEO CAREER CO., LTD.
Maverick., inc.
Nano Interactive GmbH
Nano Interactive / AudiencemanagerSSL
Napster Luxemburg SARL
Native Match with Brightsparc Technologies Pty Ltd
Brightsparc Technologies Pty Ltd trading as Native
Neodata Group
Ad.agioSSL
Netflix, Inc.SSL
Netseer Inc.SSL
Netshelter Technology Media, Inc.
New Wave Media dba AdoTube
AdoTubeSSL
Next Audience GmbHSSL
Next Performance SAS
NextperfSSL
Next Tuesday GmbH
AdmetricsSSL
Nextag, Inc.
CalibexSSL
Wize Commerce, Inc.SSL
Nielsen
Nielsen (Brand Effect Extended View [BEEV])SSL
Nielsen (Cross Platform Brand Effect [IAG/TVBE])SSL
Nielsen (Sales Effect)SSL
Nielsen (Watch Effect/Net Effect)SSL
Nielsen OBE (Vizu)SSL
Nielsen Online Campaign Ratings (OCR/XCR)SSL
NinthDecimalSSL
Nordic Factory Solutions AB
BannerflowSSL
Novem sp. z o.o.SSL
Nowspots INC, dba Perfect AudienceSSL
OCP Collective Corp. (d/b/a Adcade)SSL
OMG Services Ltd
Online Media GroupSSL
OOO Admoment
AdMoment
OOO GPM-Digital
OVC Online Video Communications GmbH
KissNoFrog.com
Ocapi Servios de Informao Ltda.
Ocapi
Ocean Park Interactive
Ohana Media India Private Limited
OkraMedia Inc – Canada
ContoboxSSL
OnCard Marketing Inc.
OnCard Marketing dba RevTrax
One97 Communications Limited
One97 Communications Limited (Ad Works)
OneDigitalAd TechnologiesSSL
OneScreen Inc.SSL
OneSpot, Inc.
OpenX
OpenX Ad ExchangeSSL
OpenX Ad Server
OpenX Ad ServerSSL
OsAdsPro S.R.L.
GroovinAdsSSL
Ostdeutscher Sparkassenverband
OSV onlineSSL
Outbrain
Outrigger Media Inc.SSL
OwnerIQ Inc.SSL
OxaMedia Corporation
OxaMedia Corp.SSL
Ozone Media Solutions Pvt LtdSSL
PLYMEDIA ISRAEL (2006) LTD.
Abstract
PaeDae, Inc., DBA The Mobile Majority
PaeDae, Inc. DBA The Mobile MajoritySSL
PaeDae, Inc., DBA The Mobile MajoritySSL
PageWoo, Inc.
PapayaMobile Inc.
PaperG Inc.SSL
Parship GmbHSSL
Permodo GmbHSSL
Phluant
Pictela Inc.SSL
Pipewave Inc.SSL
Pixalate, Inc
Pixalate, Inc.SSL
Placed, Inc.SSL
Placester, Inc.SSL
PlannTo Technologies Private LimitedSSL
Platform One IncSSL
PlatformID
Platform ID Inc.SSL
XrostSSL
PocketMath, Inc
Pointroll
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Jurassic World - Official Trailer (HD)

Jurassic World (2015)

Steven Spielberg returns to executive produce the long-awaited next installment of his groundbreaking Jurassic Park series, Jurassic World. Colin Trevorrow directs the epic action-adventure based on characters created by Michael Crichton. The screenplay is by Rick Jaffa & Amanda Silver and Derek Connolly & Trevorrow, and the story is by Rick Jaffa & Amanda Silver. Frank Marshall and Patrick Crowley join the team as producers. (C) Universal
Rating:     PG-13 (for intense sequences of science-fiction violence and peril)
Genre:     Action & Adventure, Mystery & Suspense, Science Fiction & Fantasy
Directed By:     Colin Trevorrow
Written By:     Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silver, Derek Connolly, Colin Trevorrow
US Box Office:     $652.2M
Runtime:     2 hr. 3 min.
Universal Pictures - Official Site

A new theme park is built on the original site of Jurassic Park. Everything is going well until the park's newest attraction--a genetically modified giant stealth killing machine--escapes containment and goes on a killing spree.
Director: Colin Trevorrow
Writers: Rick Jaffa (screenplay), Amanda Silver (screenplay) | 5 more credits »
Stars: Chris Pratt, Bryce Dallas Howard, Ty Simpkins | See full cast & crew »

Lamar Odom Didn't See His Kids While He Was In NYC For Kanye West's Fashion Show — And They're NOT Happy!

Uh-oh!

As we already know, Lamar Odom flew out to NYC to show his support for Kanye West during his Yeezy Season 3 fashion show and The Life of Pablo listening party.

However, there were a few special people the recovering athlete didn't see during his time in the Big Apple!

Related: Lamar & Khloé Kardashian Spent Valentine's Day Together!

Apparently, sources are saying the former NBA forward didn't spend any time with his two kids, Destiny and Lamar Jr., while he was in the city.

An insider explained that the teenagers were devastated that they didn't get to meet up with their famous father, saying:

    "[Lamar] didn't see his kids when he was in NYC and the kids were upset. They were supposed to come out and see him, but Lamar has been embarrassed to call them and they are angry."

We totally understand why they would be hurt, considering the basketball player had quite a scary situation last year and a rough recovery in the following months.

It's possible the sports star just didn't have enough downtime during the trip, because he flew back to LA the day after Ye's show.

What do U think? Was his schedule too hectic? Or should he have made time for his kids? SOUND OFF in the comments!

Lamar Odom and Caitlyn Jenner top Google’s 2015

Look back at what you looked up.

Lamar Odom and Caitlyn Jenner top Google’s 2015 “Year in Search” report released on Wednesday, which lists the people, places and events that trended the most over the past year.

People were keeping up with Khloe Kardashian’s ex, Odom. The former NBA player began 2015 mired in a contentious divorce with the reality star before suffering near-fatal brain damage in a November booze and drug binge at a Nevada brothel. He topped the lists for Top Trending General Searches and Top Trending People (Not Including Deaths) globally and in NYC.

But Jenner was hot on his heels in those categories, as well, after becoming a transgender icon in publicly transitioning from Bruce to Caitlyn. This year was a tipping point for the Olympic champion, who revealed her new persona on the cover of Vanity Fair in July and starred in her own E! reality series “I Am Cait.”

The tech giant’s annual report tracks the terms on everyone’s fingertips - from the tragic, such as the Paris terrorist attacks at the Charlie Hebdo offices in January and the coordinated ISIS attacks last month, to the political antics of blowhard billionaire Donald Trump and the blockbuster action movie “Jurassic World” scoring the biggest opening weekend in movie history.

"This is the year of the crossover, and it is also what makes Google data so compelling: You would never put Lamar Odom and Caitlyn Jenner on the same list, or have 'Jurassic Park' next to Donald Trump," said Google data editor Simon Rogers. "We didn't just look for the biggest searches. We wanted to get at the stories and people that rose really fast in search interest. That's what these lists represent: If someone's at the top of a list, it means they rose faster than anyone else in a shorter time."

Here’s a look at Google’s top trending searches of 2015

The world followed the Paris attacks and the City of Light's road to recovery online.

Top Trending General Searches
1. Lamar Odom
2. Jurassic World
3. American Sniper
4. Caitlyn Jenner
5. Ronda Rousey
6. Paris
7. Agario
8. Chris Kyle
9. Fallout 4
10. Straight Outta Compton

Top Trending People (Not Including Deaths)
1. Lamar Odom
2. Caitlyn Jenner
3. Ronda Rousey
4. Donald Trump
5. Ruby Rose
6. Charlie Sheen
7. Brian Williams
8. Rachel Dolezal
9. Adele
10. Josh Duggar

Top Trending Actors
1. Charlie Sheen
2. Bill Cosby
3. Taylor Kinney
4. Scott Eastwood
5. James Earl Jones
6. Tom Holland
7. Eddie Redmayne
8. Gary Busey
9. Randy Quaid
10. Tracy Morgan

Top Trending Actresses
1. Ruby Rose
2. Amy Schumer
3. Patricia Arquette

Caitlyn Jenner's rise as a transgender advocate made her another one of Google's most-searched personalities.

 

4. Rumer Willis
5. Bryce Dallas Howard
6. Alyson Stoner
7. Lily James
8. Taraji P.Henson
9. Natasha Leggero
10. Ellie Kemper

Top Trending Losses
1. Bobbi Kristina
2. Stuart Scott
3. Sandra Bland
4. Freddie Gray
5. Frank Gifford
6. Leonard Nimoy
7. Scott Weiland
8. B.B. King
9. Christopher Lee
10. Amanda Peterson

Top Trending Politicians
1. Donald Trump
2. Bernie Sanders
3. Carly Fiorina
4. Ben Carson
5. Ted Cruz
6. Deez Nuts
7. John Boehner
8. Marco Rubio
9. Jimmy Carter
10. Justin Trudeau

'Jurassic World' was a monster at the box office - and on  Google!

Top Trending Movies
1. Jurassic World
2. American Sniper
3. Straight Outta Compton
4. 50 Shades of Gray
5. Furious 7
6. Pitch Perfect 2
7. Inside Out
8. Avengers Age of Ultron
9. Minions
10. Mad Max

Top Trending Music Artists
1. Adele
2. Sia
3. Fetty Wap
4. Eazy e
5. Sam Smith
6. N.W.A.
7. Chris Stapleton
8. Beck
9. Lenny Kravitz
10. Meghan Trainor



Top Trending Athletes
1. Ronda Rousey
2. Holly Holm
3. Stephen Curry
4. Manny Pacquiao
5. Alex Morgan
6. Hope Solo
7. Patrick Kane
8. DeMarco Murray
9. Greg Hardy
10. Shawn Oakman

Top Trending Searches for NYC
1. Lamar Odom
2. Mets
3. Bobbi Kristina Brown
4. Paris
5. Caitlyn Jenner
6. Jurassic World
7. American Sniper
8. Hurricane Joaquin
9. Ronda Rousey
10. Charlie Sheen

The Mets' ultimately unsuccessful World Series run topped New York searches.

Top Trending News/Events for NYC
1. Mets
2. Paris
3. Hurricane Joaquin
4. Freddie Gray
5. Charlie Hedbo
6. Mayweather vs. Pacquiao
7. Pope Francis
8. Dallas Cowboys
9. Robert Durst
10. El Chapo

Top Trending People for NYC
1. Lamar Odom
2. Bobbi Kristina Brown
3. Caitlyn Jenner
4. Ronda Rousey
5. Charlie Sheen
6. Chris Kyle
7. Sandra Bland
8. Ruby Rose
9. Donald Trump
10. Stuart Scott

Top Trending Films for NYC
1. Jurassic World
2. American Sniper
3. Straight Outta Compton
4. 50 Shades of Grey
5. Furious 7
6. Inside Out
7. Spectre
8. Avengers Age of Ultron
9. Pitch Perfect 2
10. Mad Max Fury Road

 

.

2016 Presidential Candidates and the US Dollar

International investors are biding their time on evaluating the outcome of the next US presidential election as the field of candidates gets winnowed down. The US presidential election process historically has no discernible effect on financial conditions. Financial players are sophisticated enough to know that campaign promises are not likely to become real-world actions. Newly elected presidents hardly ever achieve their campaign promises, and certainly not in the first 100 days, which is the “medium-term” for most investors (and “long-term” for traders).

Contents [hide]

    1 Government Shutdown
    2 National Security
    3 Budget Re-Structuring
    4 Trade
    5 Tax Reform
    6 Summary
    7 Politicians and the Dollar
    8 USDX vs. Government Shutdowns

We wonder if this time it might be different and financial markets will start responding to the US voters’ choice of president. Investors might fly off the handle at a perceived threat to the status quo. This is exactly what to expect if the extreme stance on certain issues, especially taxes and national security (i.e., war) start looking credible. Extreme stances may cause a rise in the risk premium demanded to keep global investors in the market for US assets, both stocks and bonds, and thus the dollar as well.

Overall, the US economic and financial system is both stable and resilient. It would take a major change in the system’s infrastructure to have a big or lasting effect on financial markets. Most of the big changes being touted by candidates today are silly or impractical, but a few come close enough to the bone to pose a genuine threat.

The election will be held in November. The Republican convention that chooses the party’s presidential candidate will take place July 18–21 in Cleveland. The Democratic convention will be held a few days later, July 25–28, in Philadelphia. As of February, Donald Trump is the most likely to become the Republican candidate and Hillary Clinton the most likely to become the Democratic Party candidate. Of the two, Trump has the most extreme proposals, while Clinton represents a continuation of President Obama’s policy stances

Before looking at specific threats to the US financial system, it’s important to note what everyone already knows but all too often fails to keep uppermost in mind—politicians lie. Clinton comes under intense scrutiny so that disclosure of the smallest fib leads to a judgment of “untrustworthy” in polls. Trump tells more lies than any politician anyone can remember, including that his heritage is Swedish rather than German and that he saw Muslims celebrating the fall of the World Trade Center on 9/11—both utter falsehoods. Trump said 81% of murdered whites are murdered by blacks (when 84% of murdered whites are murdered by whites). He also said the unemployment rate is not 4.9%, it’s more like 28–29% or even 35% or (he claims to have heard) 42%. Numbers that high may refer to total people not working, like children and the retired, but hardly to the working-age population available for work.

Trump’s lies and buffoonish behavior seem not to disqualify him in the eyes of disgruntled voters, at least so far. But tolerance of lies and braggadocio may not outlast the nomination process. That means we must not ignore the lesser candidates, many of whom pose threats more chilling than Trump’s lack of dignity and presidential demeanor.
Government Shutdown

The biggest threat to US financial asset stability is Republican candidate Ted Cruz, who led Congress to push the entire US government into shutdown in October 1–16, 2013 and threatened to do it again in November 2014. Before then, the last time the US government was shut down was 1995–96 during the Clinton administration. In both instances, the ostensible reason was the demand that deficit spending be slashed. The real reasons are more complicated and have more to do with Congress exercising power over the President and the power of individual Congressmen over the rest of Congress as well as over the President.

Because past government shutdowns were relatively brief, financial market players tend to see them as a nuisance rather than a crisis. During the 1995–96 episode, the dollar did not fall, nor did the S&P 500 stock index. In fact, they both went up, as you can see on the chart below. The 10-year note, already in a yield downtrend, showed no panic. Reuters reports the yield index at 5.935% on Nov 14, 1995 and 5.673% on January 8, 1996. The same thing happened in 2013. For this reason, financial market analysts don’t take US government shutdowns very seriously.
US Dollar Index vs. S&P 500 Index Chart

US Dollar Index (Black) and S&P 500 Index (Red) during 1995–96 US Government Shutdown (two sessions defined with blue vertical lines). Source: Reuters.

But it would be a different kettle of fish if it were the President and not Congress refusing to sign a budget and thus shutting down the government. Global markets might well respond badly to President Cruz exercising executive power in this manner. It would look like dictatorial fascism. Confidence in the US and American assets would suffer. At this point in time, however—mid-February 2016—candidate Cruz is losing popularity and not likely to become the Republican choice.
National Security

The term “national security” is a proxy for ramped up military spending and saber-rattling, if not outright military excursions. Aside from the libertarian candidate Rand Paul, who has pulled out of the race, every Republican candidate has promised a major military initiative in the Middle East to beat ISIS into the ground. We should note that once a contender becomes the selected official candidate, he is favored with briefings from the military establishment—and the candidate changes his tune, or at least the tune becomes more nuanced.

Over-the-top, macho militarism is a long-standing feature of the Republican political play-book but we set it aside at our peril. It’s likely that candidate Jeb Bush is failing to gain traction in polls and in the primaries in part because he chooses to employ the same foreign affairs advisors that his brother George W. Bush used to get the US into the Iraq war.

It’s of no little interest that leading candidate Trump opposed the Iraq war and asserts the US must not only win any war, but also win the peace. He says if the US can’t do both, it needs to stay out. This contradicts his other statements about bombing the Iraqi oilfields (and any civilians who happen to be around) to defeat ISIS. Trump has also said mutually exclusive things about “taking on” Russian leader Putin. In December 2015, Putin praised Trump, a strange event. Nobody can remember a world leader praising a presidential candidate. It’s likely that because both men are raging narcissists, they actually do understand one another.

If we accept the view that Putin’s overriding goal is to restore the grandeur and power of the now-failed Russian/Soviet empire, if not its geographical reach, we must admit this is something Trump can easily understand and perhaps accommodate. In other words, Trump can appreciate that Putin wants to “make Russia great again” just as Trump seeks to “make America great again. That might be fine with Trump as long as Putin doesn’t step on American toes. We can even imagine an informal alliance of the US and Russia on some matters of mutual interest, including Syria and relations with China—not to mention North Korea and perhaps Afghanistan. This is one of the reasons the neo-conservatives, who instigated and supported the Iraq war, would like another one, and are trying to keep the Cold War going—oppose Trump.

Likely Democratic candidate Clinton is less militaristic than the Republicans generally. Having been Secretary of State under President Obama, Clinton is already fully briefed on what the US can realistically hope to achieve. Clinton has not proposed any major changes in the military budget or mix of military and non-military spending.

That is a task taken by Senator Bernie Sanders, who voted against the Iraq war and would like to see more diplomacy and less military action. Sanders proposes cutting the defense budget, although he has not named a specific amount, on the grounds that former President Eisenhower’s worry about the “military-industrial complex” in 1953 has indeed come true—most military spending goes to private contractors. And much of the spending is wasteful and misdirected to out-of-date Cold War weapons systems, including nuclear submarines—not to mention instances of fraud.

If Sanders gets the Democratic Party nomination, the immediate effect would be a sell-off in defense industry stocks. If Trump becomes the Republican Party candidate, we might expect he would try to fulfill the campaign promise of driving ISIS back into the ground. A US military incursion in the Middle East would be good for the stock market and oddly, the dollar. The dollar rose strongly upon declarations of both the first and second Iraq wars. Nobody knows why. FX traders are not any more blood-thirsty than any other traders, but it’s a historical fact that the dollar rises when the US rattles the sword.
Budget Re-Structuring

Except for 1969 and four years around 2000, the US federal budget has been in deficit since 1965. In fiscal 2015, the deficit contracted to $439 billion, the lowest level since 2008, on cost-cutting and economic recovery that boosted tax receipts.

Total Deficits or Surpluses

The US has two budget problems—the composition of the deficit and the cumulative debt burden. Both aspects of the US budget reflect an issue that no other G7 or G20 country faces—the cost of military spending. The US spends more on military spending than the next ten countries combined.

Politicians and voters alike are confused on the subject of the US as “world leader.” Critics say the US has no business appointing itself the leader of the free world, and yet they expect the US to rush to the rescue when their own self-interest is threatened. President George W. Bush demanded contributions to the Iraqi war effort from regional governments, at first, and President Obama deferred to German Chancellor Merkel when Russia threatened Ukraine. But on the whole, the US either chooses or is forced by circumstances and peer pressure to play the leading role in international affairs when a military response may come into play. It goes without saying that the prosperity of many European countries, as well as South Korea and Japan, depends on not having to spend tax money on defense. For their part, American citizens are proud of military prowess and world leadership and yet, at the same time, are generally anti-war and often more than a little isolationist, a long-standing theme in US public life.

Conflicted emotions about the US as military world leader springs to life when it comes to political talk about the budget deficit. This is because the budget has two components—mandatory spending and discretionary spending (the third component is interest on the debt). Mandatory spending is largely social spending on public pensions (Social Security), health care for the retired (Medicare), and unemployment benefits. Mandatory spending also includes a large portion for the military. All other spending programs pale by comparison.

Defense Spending

The 2015 fiscal year budget was $3.8 trillion or 21% of GDP. Of that total, $1.1 trillion was discretionary spending, i.e., programs selected and specifically funded by Congress. To the portion of the budget mandated for military spending, Congress added an additional $598.5 billion in discretionary spending, or 54% of discretionary spending, on top of the amount already existing under mandatory spending. But while defense spending may be 54% of discretionary spending, it’s 16% of total spending, according to politifact.com. The lion’s share of total spending does go to Health and Human Resources and Social Security.

Total Federal Spending 2015: $3.8 Trillion

The perennial political debate between the two parties has the Republicans seeking to expand military discretionary spending while cutting mandatory social spending, and Democrats defending or wanting to enlarge social spending—while not necessarily also wanting to cut military spending at the same time. Republicans want deficits to fall while Democrats are seen as not much caring about the deficit level. This may not be accurate or fair, but it’s the common perception.

Many of the Republican candidates, including Trump, claim to favor an amendment to the Constitution that would require a balanced budget. Trump also says he would not cut social programs. The only logical deduction from both positions is either a very big cut in defense spending or a tax hike for everyone. Since a cut in defense spending would never pass in Congress, that means a Trump presidency calls for a tax increase.

A Constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget is not likely but not impossible. And it would be a game-changer in international finance. Cutting the deficit back to zero would be wildly deflationary as the number of federally employed would fall from about 2.7 million persons today to some lesser number. The wage effect would ripple throughout every corner of the economy. Former bureaucrats would be mowing lawns.

Conventional wisdom has it that deficits contribute to inflation and thus confidence in the US economy and financial system would rise dramatically if we had a balanced budget—as we see in Germany. In fact, the single mandate of the European Central Bank is to control inflation, while the US Fed has a dual mandate that adds keeping employment at a good level. A balanced budget amendment would be anti-inflationary and confidence-building in the long run but deflationary and confidence-destroying in the near term.
Trade

Leading Republican candidate Trump has offered up many outrageous proposals, including building a wall along the Mexican border against illegal immigrants and making Mexico pay for it. He would also ban all Muslim travelers and immigrants, and other absurd (and unconstitutional) measures. Even his followers admit that much of what Trump promises is not possible or legal, but don’t care. He has tapped into a vein of anger among voters that government is not delivering what the voters have asked for.

After the wall on the Mexican border, Trumps’ biggest promise is to write a new trade deal with China, as well as repudiate the North American Free Trade deal and the Trans-Pacific Trade Pact. If a deal can’t be made with China, Trump would like to just impose tariffs on Chinese goods. At one point Trump proposed a 45% tariff, although later he denied saying it. How realistic would that be? Under World Trade Organization rules, the US imposing tariffs on China would be illegal. Under US laws, it could be done as an “emergency” measure by the Executive, even if Congress later reversed it.

The outcome would be to raise the price of low-cost electronics (like notebook PC’s and cell phones) so that less disposable income in American wallets would be left over for other things. China might have to shutter some factories, but we should also expect the stock price to crash of Apple, Walmart, Microsoft and all the other companies that rely on Chinese imports. It’s interesting that Chinese retaliation would not benefit China, since most of what China imports from the US goes into making things it turns around and sells to the US.

The trade imbalance with China is indeed a point of contention. We get cheap socks and phones, and China gets dollars with which to buy Treasuries and US companies. The trade deficit has grown from $83.8 billion in 2000 to $365.7 billion in 2015.

A giant tariff on US imports from China would not immediately result in old factories re-opening and new ones springing up all over the place. It would take some serious changes in the US educational system to replace China as the top manufacturer of so many products. One reason China gets the work is its millions of skilled laborers. The US educational system is not equipped to provide skilled workers and US companies are not accustomed to providing training. In the end, though, companies would be incentivized to return manufacturing to the US. Government tax receipts would rise accordingly along with demand for housing and other pro-growth sectors.

Voters have been told since the days of Ronald Reagan that free trade benefits everyone. But faith in free-trade policies is now badly shaken. It looks good on paper but in practice, the US gave away the candy store without getting concessions from trade partners. All you have to do is look at the chart of the US-China trade deficit to see that Trump is right—the US is getting the short end of the stick. Trump’s attacks on China justify a great deal of his appeal among voters.

The US's trade balance deficit with China keeps widening
Tax Reform

The single thing that would boost the US economy the most would be corporate tax reform. The tax is so high—35%—that companies are pretending to move overseas (“inversion”), while others have such devious tax lawyers that they pay no US tax at all, such as General Electric. Since 2012, twenty major companies have moved overseas to dodge taxes, including Burger King (Canada) and Pfizer (Ireland). Major multinational corporations spend as much on lawyers and accountants finding ways to avoid or defer taxation as they do research and development.

It’s stupid and cannot, seemingly, be fixed; the current crop of presidential candidates all declare they want to throw out the current tax code and start over. But as a practical matter, you can’t throw out the baby with the bath water. You need agreement on the new tax code for corporations before you can transition from the old one, and it’s too big a job for Congress to agree on. Congress’s outright failure to solve the corporate tax problem is a key reason its approval rating is lower than 10%.

Clinton would impose an exit tax, which hardly solves the problem, and Trump would cut the corporate tax rate to 15%. The probability of a corporate tax cut is higher than the probability of getting agreement on an exit tax.

As for personal tax rates, every single candidate tries to pander to the voter by promising tax cuts—except Sanders. Sanders would raise everyone’s personal tax rate, with progressively higher rates on higher incomes, while taxing capital gains as ordinary income. This is something the financial markets understand all too well and would respond to immediately if Sanders gets the nomination—a massive sell-off in taxable assets. Critics also note that Sanders doesn’t get the arithmetic right and overestimates the tax revenue that would arise from eliminating the low capital gains tax—by some $3 trillion over a decade.

Sanders also promises an economically unjustified trade-off of a $500 rise in the average tax bill in exchange for a $5,000 savings on health care. Economists point out that the Sanders arithmetic is just plain wrong—replacing private health insurance with government provision of health care would cost $4 trillion over the next decade and cost the average worker 8.4% of income in new taxes. This is a lot more than $500.

Sanders also promises free university education for all but underestimates the cost, and proposes Congressional control of the Federal Reserve. This would take the form, for example, of barring the Fed from raising interest rates if unemployment is above 4%.

Giving Congress control of the Fed is unthinkable even among the most severe Fed critics. The Fed is the only institution in public life today that has independence from political interference and thus a modicum of respect. The financial sector that actually understands the role of the Fed would fight tooth-and-nail to defend its independence, at least its independence from a rule like the 4% proposal.

Sanders is not likely to win the Democratic party nomination in July, but if he were to win, we can expect two outcomes: first, at least some sell-off in both equities and fixed income assets. The dollar might not respond much, but would be vulnerable to a sell-off in anticipation of even bigger government deficits. Secondly, the probability of a Republican victory by any candidate would rise.
Summary

To conclude, presidential candidates make promises they cannot keep. The president is not a dictator who can unilaterally impose new laws. Congress and the judiciary serve as a check on executive power (and vice versa).

Newly elected presidents hardly ever achieve their campaign promises, and certainly not in the first 100 days. Franklin D. Roosevelt was the one exception, and that was over 80 years ago in 1933. Roosevelt got fifteen major bills through Congress in the first 100 days, including the Emergency Banking Act and the bill ending Prohibition. Nobody else has come even close, unless you want to include the Civil Rights Act in 1964 under Lyndon Johnson, who at that time had not actually been elected but was fulfilling the job started by President John Kennedy in 1963 before he was assassinated.

As a rule, the first year of a new president’s administration is accompanied by rising equities. That may not hold true if it’s a big-spending, tax-raising, populist who wins. Funny enough, we could be speaking as much about the Republican candidate Donald Trump as about the Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders.

If these two are the official candidates, former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg has said he will consider entering the race as an independent candidate. Independents have a bad record in the US. In recent memory we have had a Texas millionaire, Ross Perot, who dropped out of the 1992 election, and consumer rights activist Ralph Nader, who is thought to have spoiled the 2000 election by taking votes from Democrat Al Gore, thus favoring Republican George W. Bush.

But Bloomberg may be a different kind of animal. For one thing, Perot and Nader started out as single-issue ideologues and thus “fringe,” whereas Bloomberg is well-rounded and widely respected. Betting websites give Bloomberg a good shot at winning the presidency. See the table below. Also interesting from the betting websites is that Ohio Governor John Kasich performs well. Kasich is sane and reasonable, has experience in deficit cutting during the Clinton administration, and refrains from ridiculous rhetoric, if also being utterly without charisma. At a guess, Kasich could become everyone’s first choice for vice-presidential running mate.

As for the other candidates, Marco Rubio is perceived as lacking poise and being too green. Dr. Ben Carson will fall out from lack of government experience (and believing the Egyptian pyramids were built to store grain). He is not even listed in the betting tanks. As noted above, Jeb Bush is probably overly contaminated by his acceptance of brother George W’s neo-con foreign policy advisors.

2016 US Presidential Election - Next President of the United States - Odds as of February 16

Bottom line, the consensus that Trump will become the next US president seems outlandish and yet not out of the question. Of the key issues, Trump is basically right about taking China to task on trade, about raising taxes on the rich and trying to balance the budget, and about using military resources wisely, even if his impulsive style is worrisome.
Politicians and the Dollar

Noted above is that a Cruz presidency would drive investors away from the dollar because of suspicions he would shut down the government to get his way. A Clinton presidency would likely be a continuation of the Obama administration, with a low level of militarism but also no change on taxes. To be fair, very little that a new presidential administration does can affect the dollar. The key factor influencing the dollar is interest rates, both the trend in the US’ own rates and the differential with other major issuers of sovereign debt. That makes the key player the Federal Reserve, not the president.

But Trump has some ideas that would likely cause a dollar sell-off, even if in the long-run, they have the potential to favor growth and employment.
Trump’s idea of imposing tariffs on China is the most risky. As noted, it would make goods more costly for Americans but it also invites retaliation in the form of China potentially dumping a portion of its reserves held in US dollars, about $1.264 trillion as of the latest official count (November 2015). If the supply of Treasuries were to increase by that much over a short period, the price would get driven down (and the yield up). To replace Treasuries with notes and bonds denominated in another currency, China would be a massive seller of dollars. The first announcement of a US tariff would almost certainly set off a general dollar sell-off on the bandwagon effect.

Another potential political dollar-mover is a tax break for companies repatriating money held overseas, something Trump also embraces. The amount is estimated at $2.5 trillion. To be fair, the dollar got a boost sporadically when Congress passed a one-year bill in 2003 allowing repatriation of corporate profits for a low 5% tax. The purpose of the bill was to fund capital investment, especially in research and development, and hiring workers. But companies were not required to use the money for any specific purpose and the plan didn’t work to boost employment. The Council of Economic Advisers) found that for every dollar companies brought home, 60–92 cents went to hikes in dividends and to stock buybacks. Congress found that the top 15 repatriating corporations repatriated more than $150 billion during the holiday and then proceeded to cut U.S. workforce by 21,000 between 2004 and 2007. Pfizer, which repatriated more than any other company ($35.5 billion), cut 11,748 U.S. jobs over the next three years.

Repatriation entails selling the foreign currencies in which overseas profits are held and buying dollars. In the end, companies repatriated $312 billion, much of it late in the year. But this is a small sum in the context of the overall FX market of over $1 trillion per day. Still, there were some weeks when the repatriation was seen as a dollar driver.
USDX vs. Government Shutdowns

Ahead of the government shutdown in 1995, the dollar index had already fallen hard in September, but not because of the looming shutdown. The Federal Reserve had cut the Fed funds rate from 6.0% to 5.75% in July, and the dollar was sold off in September in anticipation of another cut at the September FOMC. That cut didn’t come, however, until December 19 (to 5.50%). Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed over 5000 for the first time on November 20. Stock market participants almost always increase equity holdings when rates are falling. Expectations about the Fed were the driver of the dollar that fall, not the shutdown. The dollar index bottomed in late October and proceeded higher to surpass the September high by year-end.

USDX Behaviour During 1995 US Government Shutdown

The more recent government shutdown was October 1–16, 2013. Again, analysts were surprised that it had less effect on the dollar than other events. For one thing, mandated government spending cuts (“sequester”) had already started in March. Also in March, the Cyprus sovereign debt crisis hit, ending in a depositors’ bail-in for the first time in modern times. In May, August and October either the Dow or the S&P 500 made new record highs as the fixed income market gnashed its teeth over tapering of QE. In October 2013, as the government was shut down, financial market commentary was more focused on when QE would end than any other single subject. The dollar index opened on October 1 at 80.27 and closed October 15 at 80.48. This reflects that the shutdown was not a high priority for the FX market.

USDX Chart for 2013 Government Shutdown

About the author: Barbara Rockefeller is an international economist with a focus on foreign exchange. She has worked as a forecaster, trader, and consultant at Citibank and other financial institutions, and currently publishes daily reports on foreign exchange for RTS. Rockefeller is the author of The Baby Boomer Survival Guide (Humanix, 2014), The Foreign Exchange Matrix (Harriman House, 2013), Technical Analysis for Dummies (For Dummies, 2004), 24/7 Trading Around the Clock, Around the World (John Wiley & Sons, 2000), The Global Trader (John Wiley & Sons, 2001), and How to Invest Internationally, published in Japan in 1999.

Daily Forex price action analysis 2016-02-10

In today's price action analysis I review the EUR/USD short I spotted in yesterdays analysis. The trade worked out quite well, it hit it's 1:2 risk/reward ratio for me.

Did you take the trade? If you did, respond below and let me know how it went for you.

Today there are three potential trades forming. USD/JPY is sitting on the 114.00 support area, if indecision forms near that level on the the 12 hour or daily chart, I may consider a long trade. The setup would need to meet all my criteria and would need to have a good risk/reward ratio.

USD/CAD might be stalling on the 3 hour chart, the setup is not that great though, and there is a 95% chance it wont stall or I wont take it.

USD/CHF is showing strong signs of a bearish continuation from the 0.9815 resistance area. I have not traded continuations for years but I may start trading them again soon. I explain my thoughts on continuation trades in the analysis video below.
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